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12 Jul 2020

News

Northern Ireland breaks all house price records

  • House price growth in Northern Ireland is fastest since records began in 1973
  • London and Northern Ireland buck the cooling trend
  • Average house price in Northern Ireland exceeds £200,000
  • Fastest house price growth in London for almost four years
  • Prices in the South of England increased twice as fast as those in the North

 

House Price
  UK fact file                                                                    
 


Average house price: £175,554

Annual percentage increase: 9.5%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 2.2%

Most expensive region: London

Least expensive region: North

Region with strongest price growth: Northern Ireland

Region with weakest price growth: North West

 

Quarterly index – UK Headlines

Q1 2007

Q4 2006

Average price in quarter

£175,554

£172,065

Annual change

9.5%

9.3%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted)

2.2%

3.3%

Text in Blue indicates a hyperlink
Commenting on the figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

Prices increased in every part of the UK in the last 12 months, but the rate at which they rose was quite different across the country. Northern Ireland and London stand out as the leaders with the fastest annual rates of house price growth in the UK.  In contrast, the Northern and North West regions and Wales saw the biggest slowdown in the annual rate of house price growth.    

Overall, the annual rate of house price growth in the UK is firm, but the quarterly data suggest that the underlying rate of growth is now starting to cool. During the first three months of the year the rate of house price inflation slowed from 3.3% to 2.2%.  However, London and Northern Ireland bucked this softening trend with house prices increasing by 4.4% and 14.6% respectively during the first quarter.

In England, the North-South gap opened up further over the year as prices in the South of England grew at more than twice the rate of those in the North . Prices in the South increased by 10.7% compared with only 5.3% in the North, reversing the pattern seen two years ago. Within England, London saw the fastest pace of annual growth at 14.3% and the North West the slowest at 4.5%.  London was the only part of England to see house prices accelerate in the first quarter.  The Northern region was the only region to see a fall in house prices.  During the first quarter prices fell by 0.4%, although this is likely to be correcting the 4.8% growth seen in the final quarter of 2006.
 
Northern Ireland made housing market history in the first quarter of 2007 with the fastest annual rate of growth anywhere in the UK since Nationwide records began in 1973. Prices increased by a staggering 57.6% in the last 12 months.  This brings the average house price in Northern Ireland to over £200,000, a figure comparable with prices in the Outer South East. Prices in the Province are still accelerating too, increasing by 14.6% during the first quarter, faster than anywhere else in the UK.
London was the only part of England where house price inflation picked up during the first three months of the year. Prices increased by 4.4% during the quarter, bringing the annual rate of growth up to 14.3%.  This is the fastest annual rate of growth in the capital for almost four years.

Scotland maintained its strong performance in the first quarter but the rate of growth is showing signs of cooling.  Prices increased by 15.2%, the second fastest rate of growth in the UK, and the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.  However, the rate of growth during the quarter cooled sharply to 2.7% down from 3.7% in the last quarter of 2006. Despite the robust growth over the last year, Scotland is still the second cheapest place in the UK with a typical house price of £140,929.

The Welsh housing market also cooled rapidly in the first quarter.  House prices are a firm 6.1% higher than this time last year, but during the quarter prices increased by only 0.8% compared with 2.5% in the final quarter of 2006. A typical property in Wales is now worth just over £150,000, more than £8,500 higher than at this time last year.

Regional Headlines

Region

Average Price

Quarterly % change

Annual % change

North

£129,378

-0.4%

4.8%

Yorkshire & Humberside

£151,530

1.1%

6.4%

North West

£154,417

0.2%

4.5%

East Midlands

£152,560

1.3%

6.1%

West Midlands

£160,386

0.9%

4.8%

East Anglia

£176,753

2.0%

Cardiff

£202,544

198%

3%

4%

Mid & West Wales

£154,984

221%

3%

3%

North Wales

£172,886

224%

8%

9%

South Wales (East)

£164,302

212%

4%

8%

South Wales (West)

£155,965

195%

8%

8%

 

North (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

Cumbria

£148,381

172%

6%

9%

Durham

£146,701

187%

11%

9%

Northumberland

£158,593

173%

2%

5%

Teeside

£156,333

198%

9%

8%

Tyne and Wear

£161,225

209%

2%

2%

North West (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

Cheshire

£184,704

187%

2%

4%

City of Manchester

£202,404

270%

3%

8%

Greater Manchester

£167,697

196%

5%

4%

Lancashire

£154,608

189%

6%

7%

Merseyside

£158,366

202%

3%

4%

Warrington & Halton

£167,905

187%

5%

6%

Yorkshire & Humberside (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

Bradford

£166,877

207%

9%

10%

East Yorkshire

£152,427

198%

3%

2%

Leeds

£194,826

205%

7%

10%

North Lincolnshire

£134,641

188%

7%

5%

North Yorkshire

£198,155

203%

3%

4%

Sheffield

£181,710

250%

10%

14%

South Yorkshire

£145,042

194%

3%

2%

West Yorkshire

£158,824

181%

8%

5%

York

£216,087

220%

8%

13%

East Anglia (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

Cambridgeshire

£201,760

177%

6%

7%

Norfolk

£183,196

228%

10%

11%

Peterborough

£165,663

213%

3%

4%

Suffolk

£187,779

207%

7%

9%

 

East Midlands (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

Derby

£169,238

202%

6%

8.8%

Outer South East

£204,371

2.4%

8.9%

Outer Metropolitan

£245,010

2.7%

10.1%

London

£280,995

4.4%

14.3%

South West

£196,103

2.8%

8.4%

Wales

£150,017

0.8%

6.1%

Scotland

£140,929

2.7%

15.2%

Northern Ireland

£203,815

14.6%

57.6%

UK

£175,554

2.2%

9.5%

Major Towns and Cities

5 hottest regional towns/cities

Rank

Town / City

Annual % Change

Average Price

1

Belfast

61%

£262,965

2

Norwich

18%

£200,060

3

Oxford

17%

£309,680

4

Cambridge

16%

£287,698

5

Carlisle

14%

£149,331

5 coolest regional towns/cities

Rank

Town / City

Annual % Change

Average Price

1

Nottingham

-2%

£144,954

2

Newcastle

1%

£177,849

3

Liverpool

2%

£153,371

4

Coventry

3%

£163,852

5

Cardiff

4%

£202,544

North of England includes Northern, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside and the East and West Midlands regions. South of England includes East Anglia, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, Greater London and South West

  
House Price 

Scotland


Average house price: £140,929

Annual percentage increase: 15.2%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 2.7%

Most expensive area: Edinburgh City

Least expensive area: South Lanarkshire

Area with strongest price growth: Aberdeen City

Area with weakest price growth: South Lanarkshire

 

The Scottish housing market cooled a little in the first quarter but remains robust.  The annual rate of house price inflation fell back to 15.2% from 16% at the end of 2006.  During the quarter, the pace of house price growth also moderated, falling to 2.7% from an average of 3.8% during 2006.  In spite of house price inflation outperforming the UK average for three and a half years, the price of a typical house in Scotland is still almost £35,000 less than the average price for the UK and is the second cheapest place to buy a house behind the Northern region of England.

However, average prices disguise the dynamics within the country.  House prices in Edinburgh have increased by around 90% over the last five years and are now closer to those in the South East and some parts of London.
 
We expect that the rate of house price growth in Scotland will continue to cool throughout the rest of 2007, but that the annual rate of growth will still outperform the UK average.

Click here for Scotland’s sub-regional data  

House Price
 Wales  


Average house price: £150,017

Annual percentage increase: 6.1%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 0.8%

Most expensive area: Cardiff

Least expensive area: Mid & West Wales

Area with strongest price growth: North Wales

Area with weakest price growth: Mid & West Wales

 

The Welsh housing market slowed sharply in the first quarter of 2007.  The annual rate of house price growth cooled to 6.1% from 8.9% at the end of 2006.  Only the Northern region of England slowed more rapidly in the first quarter.  The price of a typical house in Wales increased by over £8,500 in the last 12 months.  This is the equivalent of a price rise of £24 per day.  However, this is significantly less than the average for the UK of £42, reflecting that house price growth in Wales has underperformed the UK for a year and a half.

Cardiff is still the most expensive part of Wales, but the rate of house price growth in the city has fallen behind most others in the UK.  Cardiff saw the fifth slowest rate of growth among the major UK towns and cities over the last 12 months. Its ranking out of 30 major UK towns and cities fell from 23 to 27 over the last year.

In common with the rest of the UK, we expect house price inflation in Wales to moderate further during 2007 as the impact of rising interest rates and deteriorating affordability takes hold.

Click here for Wales sub-regional data

 

House Price
 Northern Ireland  


Average house price: £203,815

Annual percentage increase: 57.6%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 14.6%

Most expensive area: City of Belfast

Least expensive area: Northern Ireland (West)

Area with strongest price growth: City of Belfast

Area with weakest price growth: Northern Ireland (West)

House prices increased by a staggering 57.6% in Northern Ireland in the last 12 months.  This is the fastest ever annual rate of house price inflation recorded in the Nationwide House Price Index since it started in 1973. The strength of the Northern Irish market has exceeded all expectations in spite of the recent economic success of the Province. Northern Ireland has one of the strongest regional economies alongside London.  The benefits of peace in Northern Ireland should not be discounted.  House prices have increased by 281% since the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 compared to the UK average of 179%. Strong net inward migration, success in attracting jobs, infrastructure investment and spin-offs from the booming Southern Irish economy have all helped to boost the Northern Irish market.

Belfast saw the fastest rate of house price growth of all of the UK major towns and cities in the first quarter of 2007 - the fifth consecutive quarter that it has topped the league.   

While additional confidence in the Province may grow out of the latest political agreements, continued growth of this level is unlikely to be sustained for long, and such rapid growth in house prices might suggest that this market is more vulnerable than some other parts of the UK. 

Click here for Northern Ireland’s sub-regional data

House Price
 London
 


Average house price: £280,995

Annual percentage increase: 14.3%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 4.4%

Most expensive borough: Westminster

Least expensive borough: Barking and Dagenham

Area with strongest price growth: Camden

Area with weakest price growth: Havering

Annual house price growth in London was faster than anywhere else in England for the fourth consecutive quarter. House prices in London increased by more than £35,000 in the last 12 months – the equivalent of almost £100 per day. The London market continues to lead the English regions and carries its neighbours on its coat tails. 

The strength of the London economy is a major factor behind the buoyancy of the market.  London’s success as a global financial centre has helped to attract highly qualified and highly paid workers.  Furthermore, development of infrastructure and the anticipated gains to result from the Olympic Games have helped to inject further confidence into the market.  London also suffers from a significant under-supply of property which keeps strong upward pressure on house prices in the capital.

The outlook for the London market still looks rosy given the economic conditions it faces.  However, its market is not immune from rising interest rates and deteriorating affordability.  We therefore expect the rate of house price inflation in London to cool from the current level, but to remain at a robust level by the end of 2007.

Click here for London’s sub-regional data

House Price
 England


Average house price: £193,759

Annual percentage increase: 8.7%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 2.3%

Most expensive area: London

Least expensive area: North

Area with strongest price growth: London

Area with weakest price growth: North West

 

The annual rate of house price growth in England picked up to 8.7% in the first quarter of 2007 bringing the average price to £193,759. House prices in England grew on average by £43 per day over the last 12 months, but this disguises the vast difference across the regions. In the Northern region prices grew by only £16 per day, but in London they grew at more than six times this rate at just under £100 per day.

The gap between the North and South opened up further in the first quarter. House prices in the South grew by 10.7% over the last 12 months, more than twice the rate of those in the North, where the average growth rate was 5.3%.  The average price of a house in the South is now £229,000, one and a half times more expensive than in the North of England, where the average price is £152,000. Without exception, all of the regions in the South of England saw a pick-up in the annual rate of growth in the first quarter and all of the regions in the North saw a slower rate of annual growth.

Looking at what happened to house prices during the first quarter, the regional series show some softening in house price growth across all of the English regions with the exception of London where the rate of house price growth accelerated.  The widening North-South gap is also evident in the quarterly data.  All of the regions in the South of England experienced growth of at least 2% in the first three months of the year, while those in the North increased by less than 1.5%.

The Northern region stands out at the bottom of the English regions with prices falling by 0.4% during the quarter. However, this is unlikely to suggest that the Northern region is to experience a crash, rather that this is a correction to the exceptional 4.8% increase in the previous quarter. Yorkshire and Humberside has been the most buoyant of the Northern regions over the year, driven largely by price growth in the cities of Sheffield and York. Prices in York increased by 13% over the year.  This moved it up to number 10 in the rankings of house prices in major UK towns and cities, compared to 24th this time last year.

In the South, London clearly leads the way, but the neighbouring regions have also benefited from its growth. The rate of annual house price growth in East Anglia, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan and South West regions increased in the last quarter, but with the strongest increases in the regions closest to London.

Looking forward into the rest of 2007 we expect that the rate of house price growth in England will cool overall, but that there will be significant regional variations. England will continue to be led by London and the South East where supply issues are most acute and we would expect stronger house price growth in these regions compared with the North.


Sub-regional analysis
Just as the national data disguises differences in house prices throughout the UK, looking at the regions disguises movements in local house prices.  To look at these developments more closely the areas can be divided into sub-regions.
Scotland   (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

Aberdeen City

£197,958

158%

30%

36%

Aberdeenshire & Moray

£139,063

143%

26%

23%

Dunbartonshire & North Lanarkshire

£146,555

152%

12%

12%

Dundee & Angus

£137,305

158%

10%

12%

Edinburgh City

£234,919

207%

11%

11%

Fife

£134,975

168%

6%

12%

Glasgow City

£161,356

168%

11%

10%

Highlands & Islands

£140,993

160%

14%

12%

Lothian & Falkirk

£148,778

145%

11%

9%

Perthshire & Stirling

£154,785

147%

10%

12%

Renfrewshire & Inverclyde

£155,020

155%

8%

12%

South Lanarkshire

£133,411

134%

9%

6%

Southern Scotland

£138,682

176%

11%

16%

Northern Ireland (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

City of Belfast

£262,965

381%

43%

61%

Northern Ireland (North East)

£189,112

267%

36%

45%

Northern Ireland (South East)

£216,273

295%

36%

46%

Northern Ireland (West)

£177,298

236%

26%

36%

Wales (click here to return to commentary)

>

Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

9%

Derbyshire

£163,983

195%

3%

4%

Leicestershire

£177,451

194%

4%

6%

Mid Lincolnshire

£155,031

202%

2%

6%

Northampton Town

£182,575

211%

8%

7%

Northamptonshire

£175,174

201%

4%

4%

Nottingham

£144,954

171%

-2%

-2%

Nottinghamshire

£155,810

180%

4%

5%

South Lincolnshire

£162,746

218%

7%

10%

West Midlands (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

Birmingham

£180,546

224%

3%

5%

Coventry

£163,852

201%

4%

3%

Greater Birmingham

£170,501

177%

4%

3%

Herefordshire

£198,302

212%

9%

17%

Shropshire

£176,937

194%

6%

6%

Staffordshire

£160,922

174%

2%

5%

Warwickshire

£195,875

195%

5%

5%

Worcestershire

£187,048

175%

4%

3%

South West (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

Bath

£245,624

223%

2%

12%

Bournemouth

£240,158

259%

8%

13%

Bristol

£228,092

280%

7%

13%

Cheltenham

£237,417

216%

12%

11%

Cornwall and Isles of Scilly

£206,753

268%

4%

10%

Dorset

£230,022

218%

4%

6%

Gloucestershire

£208,024

200%

7%

12%

North Devon

£194,579

228%

2%

4%

Plymouth

£172,565

227%

3%

6%

Poole

£246,878

238%

5%

9%

Somerset

£198,645

216%

7%

8%

South Devon

£212,119

235%

8%

7%

South Gloucestershire

£217,714

233%

9%

12%

Swindon

£191,186

181%

9%

8%

Wiltshire

£208,581

185%

8%

5%

Outer South East (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

Basingstoke & Deane

£230,754

184%

10%

4%

Brighton & Hove

£282,550

307%

11%

12%

East Kent

£197,693

220%

6%

7%

East Sussex

£211,707

222%

4%

4%

Isle of Wight

£190,605

233%

3%

-2%

Mid Hampshire

£249,937

190%

6%

9%

Milton Keynes & Aylesbury

£226,669

219%

7%

9%

New Forest

£239,497

191%

1%

3%

North Essex

£208,913

215%

4%

8%

Oxfordshire

£252,709

199%

10%

12%

Portsmouth Area

£187,023

192%

-1%

4%

Southampton Area

£216,109

206%

6%

6%

West Berkshire

£248,819

170%

7%

9%

West Sussex (South)

£232,009

221%

4%

10%

Outer Metropolitan (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

Bedford & Mid Bedfordshire

£201,155

204%

6%

9%

Bracknell Forest

£245,125

177%

1%

8%

Central Kent

£236,288

215%

7%

9%

East Surrey

£275,108

183%

6%

8%

Hart & Rushmoor

£247,553

186%

14%

17%

Hertfordshire

£258,549

198%

8%

9%

Luton & South Bedfordshire

£198,904

208%

8%

7%

Medway

£183,985

207%

6%

9%

North Surrey

£289,069

186%

7%

12%

Reading

£239,716

213%

8%

14%

Slough

£260,373

217%

11%

8%

South Buckinghamshire & Chilterns

£283,193

186%

10%

12%

South Essex

£227,418

216%

5%

8%

St Albans

£326,048

209%

7%

11%

West Kent

£228,861

189%

4%

5%

West Surrey

£290,541

183%

10%

13%

West Sussex (North)

£251,270

207%

6%

13%

Windsor & Maidenhead

£292,908

177%

10%

14%

Wokingham

£261,065

173%

9%

12%

 

 

London (click here to return to commentary)


Nationwide Sub-Regions

Price in 2007 Q1

% change over 10 years

Annual Chg - Last quarter

Annual Chg - This quarter

Barking and Dagenham

£198,783

235%

15%

14%

Barnet

£290,205

213%

6%

8%

Bexley

£216,566

191%

7%

8%

Brent

£312,478

269%

5%

10%

Bromley

£250,363

203%

9%

13%

Camden

£489,531

252%

16%

27%

Croydon

£231,040

224%

8%

10%

Ealing

£327,984

256%

1%

10%

Enfield

£257,252

220%

4%

8%

Greenwich

£268,194

279%

22%

22%

Hackney

£350,448

361%

22%

25%

Hammersmith and Fulham

£447,663

226%

12%

19%

Haringey

£317,651

263%

11%

12%

Harrow

£273,852

210%

7%

10%

Havering

£215,570

210%

4%

8%

Hillingdon

£262,356

214%

6%

9%

Hounslow

£292,057

244%

6%

11%

Islington

£427,235

288%

20%

26%

Kingston upon Thames

£307,196

220%

13%

17%

Lambeth

£325,885

255%

10%

16%

Lewisham

£263,796

283%

13%

17%

Merton

£327,847

270%

15%

16%

Newham

£251,124

349%

6%

16%

Redbridge

£259,168

259%

10%

14%

Richmond upon Thames

£356,354

202%

15%

11%

Southwark

£336,315

283%

18%

21%

Sutton

£246,875

210%

8%

10%

Tower Hamlets

£352,127

262%

13%

18%

Waltham Forest

£254,765

287%

13%

12%

Wandsworth

£391,878

265%

15%

21%

Westminster

£563,293

266%

16%

25%

Notes:

  1. Prices differ to main Nationwide index because sub-regional analysis is based on a different methodology.  Sub-regional analysis is based on the average price per square foot in each of the sub-regions. This is grossed up by the average square footage in a particular region to arrive at an average house price. Unlike Nationwide’s main index, this methodology does not take into account the different mix of properties transacted and is therefore a simplification.  Because of the different methodologies the two series are not directly comparable.
  2. House price growth based on prices in the last two quarters compared with the same period in earlier years

Text in orange indicates hyperlinks to move throughout this document.

Fionnuala Earley                                                          Katie Harper
Chief Economist                                                           Press Officer
Tel: 01793 656370                                                      Tel: 01793 656215
fionnuala.earley@nationwide.co.uk                                  katie.harper@nationwide.co.uk

Notes:

  1. Indices and average prices for the UK and the regions are produced using Nationwide's updated mix adjusted House Price Methodology which was introduced with effect from the first quarter of 1995. All changes are nominal and do not allow for inflation. The methodology can be found on our website: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/

 

  1. Price indices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method.  Quarterly series are seasonally adjusted using data since 1973. The seasonal adjustment is recalculated quarterly and may lead to revisions.
  1. The price changes in the sub regional, and local authority tables are based on the price per unit area of the properties in the sample.  Samples are smaller than at a regional level and figures should not be relied upon for any critical application.  Figures are not directly comparable with mix-adjusted indices.

 

  1. The Nationwide House Price Index is prepared from information which we believe is collated with care, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness.  We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the whole or any part of the Index at any time, for regulatory or other reasons.  Persons seeking to place reliance on the Index for their own or third party commercial purposes do so entirely at their own risk.

 

YOUR HOME MAY BE REPOSSESSED IF YOU DO NOT KEEP UP REPAYMENTS ON YOUR MORTGAGE

Think carefully before securing other debts against your home, your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.

Go Direct.co.uk is a trading style for website purposes of Go Direct UK Ltd.

Go Financial Services is a trading style of Go Direct UK Ltd which is an appointed representative of Personal Touch Financial Services Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England & Wales Company 5703224. FCA Number 456600

We normally do not charge a fee for mortgage advice, however this is dependent on your circumstances. Our typical fee would be £500